Predictions: Aldergeddon Primary

These are predictions for March 7th St. Louis City Alder Primary Election, not who I wish or would like to see headed to April 4th General Election.* I would be happy to see some of these predictions proven wrong.

In this election, voters may vote for as many candidates as they want and the top two candidates will advance to the General Election.

Board President Megan Green drew no opponent for this election and that hurts some candidates, I think. That, along with potential weather problems, could drive turnout very low. The result could be the candidates who drag the most family and friends to the polls, the extra super loyal who would walk thru fire or a snow storm for them, providing the win by a few dozen votes. That has heavily influenced some of my predictions.

1st Ward: Alder Anne Schweitzer and deputy sheriff Tony Kirchner. I say Kirchner, instead of Republican Matthew Kotraba, because Kirchner is endorsed by SLPOA.

2nd Ward: Alder Tom Oldenburg and Republican former cop Phill Menendez because St. Louis Hills is Republican and has a cop fetish. I do appreciate Katie Bellis running and giving voters a choice.

3rd Ward: Alder Shane Cohn. No one else is running. Predicting Cohn also wins General Election.

4th Ward: Alder Bret Narayan and Alder Joe Vacarro. Photographer Casey Otto does not have a campaign account filed with MEC.

5th Ward: Alder Joe Vollmer and salon owner Helen Petty are the only candidates on ballot.

6th Ward:  FleishmanHillard VP Daniela Velázquez and former Alder, former Recorder of Deeds Jennifer Florida are the only candidates on ballot.

7th Ward: School Board Member Alisha Sonnier and St. Louis Priory School Equity Director Jon-Pierre Mitchom.  Former Board President Lewis Reed is not much help to Cedric Redmon these days.

8th Ward: Alder Cara Spencer and former Alder Ken Ortmann. If business analyst and hip hop artist Shedrick Kelley were running against Alder Jack Coatar again, my prediction would be different. I think the addition of the rest of conservative and wealthier Lafayette Square via redistricting to the new ward and “vote for as many as you want” reform hurts Kelley this time.

9th Ward: Alder Michael Gras and grant specialist Michael Browning. Alder Tina Pihl has been pretty much abandoned by the so-called progressives who helped elect her.

10th Ward: Alder Shameem Clark-Hubbard and realtor Emmett Coleman are the only candidates on the ballot.

11th Ward: Alder Laura Keys and former US Senate candidate Carla Wright are the only candidates on ballot.

12th Ward: Alder Sharon Tyus and beauty supply business owner Tashara Earl. Tyus is a household name and Earl is backed by State Rep. Kimberly-Ann Collins. 1st Ward Committeewoman Yolanda Brown lives in same neighborhood as Tyus, but I don’t picture any strategic voting in that neighborhood to vote for both in Primary.

13th Ward: I have no idea and I am not pulling a prediction out of my ass to make this blog post tidy.

14th Ward: Alder Brandon Bosley and Alder James Page. Bosley has the Bosley Family base and Alder Page has his Downtown base. Ebony Washington has her Hubbard Family base but only makes it to General Election if there is more Absentee voting shenanigans. State Rep. Rasheen Aldridge is putting a lot of money in digital.

All New Ward Profiles here. Updating for recent MEC reporting will start Monday..

*Disclosure: I gave $100 to 7th Ward candidate Alisha Sonnier and $100 to Mayor Tishaura Jones this month. Those are the only MEC reported donations that I’ve made recently.